AAPL Apple: Ignore the rest of the market

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	David Sachdev
	Washington, DC User since Dec 2009	38
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Ignore the rest of the market

That is the suggestion I am giving to the non-investor who wants to put something in the market now that it has fallen, but they are worried about a further decline.

The P/E ratio of this stock is just stupid low, especially given it's growth rate. But it is low even for it's sector in general. Technically, the stock also has decent support below us at the 353 level.

But I started to wonder about this advice in the early minutes of hearing the Jobs news. We all knew it was coming, but we weren't sure of the reaction.

But the thing is we now have a clear succession plan and we are less likely to have Tim Cook poached by another company because Apple refused to give him the title that he deserved. In all honesty, the announcement this week just makes official the reality that has existed for the last two years.

...and as for the stock reaction, it is actually trading stronger then it was prior to the announcement. I guess all those tweets from everyone saying buy AAPL in the a.m. had some effect....at least on the retail investor.

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What People Are Saying...

Larry Leviton agreed at 8/26/11 12:36 PM Price action was $381.64 7.92 (+2.1%)

AAPL has an upward bias with $30 swings and a 10 day cycle. Use these swings to accumulate. Do not sell. Too much upside long term.

Ginger Gal agreed at 8/26/11 9:54 PM Price action was $383.58 9.86 (+2.6%)

I concur fully. The time to worry about AAPL is in the future, i.e., when AAPL will need to show its innovative edge, i.e., without Jobs.

Ginger Gal said at 8/26/11 9:55 PM Price action was $383.58 9.86 (+2.6%)

BUY APPL now and don't worry about the long term.

David Sachdev said at 8/29/11 2:11 PM Price action was $389.23 5.65 (+1.5%)

In case anyone missed the news of the huge options grant that was given to Tim Cook last week...it makes me think that Cook may have had an offer on the table from another company, and that may have helped lead up to the Steve Jobs news:

http://www.smh.com.au/technology/biz-tech/apple-handcuffs-tim-cook-to-share...

Josh Warner-Burke said at 8/31/11 10:02 AM Price action was $390.01 0.02 (+0.0%)

Totally irrelevant image chosen by me.

David Sachdev said at 8/31/11 3:20 PM Price action was $383.59 -6.40 (-1.6%)

Stepped back into AAPL at 383.32. I hope my buy back into wasn't too premature.

Larry Leviton said at 9/2/11 2:11 PM Price action was $374.02 -7.01 (-1.8%)

We're 9 days into the 10 day cycle. Could bottom @ 362 on 9/6. Accumulate. Do not sell.

David Sachdev said at 9/6/11 11:12 AM Price action was $371.12 -2.93 (-0.8%)

AAPL has performed very well today in regards to the market. Currently the market is down 2.1%, and AAPL is down .59%

Also, Canaccord Genuity has boosted it's price target on the AAPL to $545 from $515, and reiterated a "buy" rating.

I still say that this is a stock you can buy, and kinda ignore the market news as long as your time horizon is longer then a few months.

David Sachdev said at 9/13/11 2:43 PM Price action was $385.91 5.97 (+1.6%)

From macrumors:

RBC Capital Markets analyst Mike Abramsky today issued a new report sharing the results of a proprietary survey of 2,200 respondents, revealing significantly higher demand for the iPhone 5 than was evident for the iPhone 4 ahead of its release last year. The survey shows that 31% of respondents are either very likely or somewhat likely to purchase an iPhone 5, compared to 25% for the iPhone 4 back in June 2010. Moreover, Apple's 15-16 month gap since the iPhone 4 release is also pushing a strong upgrade cycle, with 66% of existing iPhone users very likely or somewhat likely to upgrade to the iPhone 5.

David Sachdev said at 9/14/11 11:15 AM Price action was $388.31 3.69 (+1.0%)

Looking good today. 393 has been an area that has been hard to clear, so I may do some short term trading if we approach that number today.

Larry Leviton disagreed at 9/14/11 7:29 PM Price action was $389.30 4.68 (+1.2%)

David Sachdev said at 9/15/11 2:33 PM Price action was $393.15 3.85 (+1.0%)

The test of 393.36 keeps failing on the upside, so I think it is likely we will peg to 390 for tomorrow's options expiration first.

Open interest in the APPL options are interesting, but I think we will be 390 tomorrow.

David Sachdev said at 9/15/11 3:07 PM Price action was $393.14 3.84 (+1.0%)

I guess the 5th time is the charm. Maybe we will peg 395 then.

David Sachdev said at 9/16/11 12:12 PM Price action was $399.12 6.16 (+1.6%)

Even on light speculation of iPhone 5, this stock gapped up last night. Expecting good things on the announcement of the announcement, and then will probably sell some the day of the real announcement. Will see what the charts say on that day.

General Market stuff:
Triple Witching Day + possibly day 5 of being up (historically the probability of 5 days up is something like 2%)

I'm choosing today to get rid of some cruft shares of various companies I have in my 401K folio in some general cleanup as I move much more towards momentum trading.

Kinda hope we close slightly down today. Also apparently there is risk of a Moody's downgrade of Italy's debt looming this evening.

David Sachdev said at 9/17/11 11:32 AM Price action was $400.50 7.54 (+1.9%)

I'll take 42,000 iPhones please:

http://ht.ly/6tHr2

David Sachdev said at 9/19/11 11:43 AM Price action was $406.33 5.83 (+1.5%)

That is a nice, nice climb!

David Sachdev said at 9/21/11 10:40 AM Price action was $418.83 5.38 (+1.3%)

In addition to various upgrades today....

AllThingsD reports that Apple will be holding its highly-anticipated iPhone 5 media event on October 4th.

While Apple could certainly change its plans anytime, sources said that the October 4 date has been selected by the company to showcase the iPhone 5. Sources added that the plan is now to make the new device available for purchase within a few weeks after the announcement.

David Sachdev said at 9/24/11 11:31 PM Price action was $404.30 2.48 (+0.6%)

If you have been stopped out on AAPL, this event may provide a good entry point again:

As noted by AllThingsD and This is my next, Amazon has just sent out invitations for a media event scheduled for next Wednesday, September 28th. The invitation is silent on what the topic of the event will be, but the company is widely expected to introduce its own low-cost Android tablet.

David Sachdev said at 10/4/11 3:04 PM Price action was $363.74 -10.86 (-2.9%)

Well, I think that Siri was pretty impressive and I think will make many users pile on. I think the fact that there was no iPhone 5 was well known before the event, yet the stock held up until the start of it.

I think what will be impressive is the Earnings Call:
Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Get your cheap stock!

David Sachdev said at 10/4/11 3:05 PM Price action was $363.34 -11.26 (-3.0%)

Comment lost again because I wasn't logged in:

Short...Siri was impressive. No iPhone 5 was known before event, yet stock held up til start.

What will impress is earnings:
Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Get your cheap stock!

David Sachdev said at 10/4/11 3:43 PM Price action was $358.39 -16.21 (-4.3%)

And wow, we have recovered $10 since that comment to get some cheap stock.

Wesley To said at 10/4/11 3:55 PM Price action was $362.76 -11.84 (-3.2%)

If I wasn't already over invested...$354 looked so tempting and rightfully so. :P

David Sachdev said at 10/13/11 4:08 PM Price action was $407.59 5.40 (+1.3%)

411 in After hours on Google earnings beat.

Josh Warner-Burke said at 10/13/11 4:13 PM Price action was $407.83 5.64 (+1.4%)

Google net rises 26% as sales jump http://www.marketwatch.com/story/google-net-rises-26-as-sales-jump-2011-10-...

David Sachdev said at 10/14/11 10:03 AM Price action was $416.53 8.10 (+2.0%)

I need to take some profits here before earnings. My October 380 Calls are up close to 300%.

I wish I had bought more on that huge pullback, but can't do the could've, would've, should've game....

The shares I sold at 409 I couldn't resist buying back at 406. Must not get too greedy...

David Sachdev said at 10/14/11 2:51 PM Price action was $419.34 10.91 (+2.7%)

...and we just hit 420 for the day on AAPL.

David Sachdev said at 10/19/11 10:21 AM Price action was $399.88 -22.36 (-5.3%)

Still very long AAPL. I think that the conference call was bullish, and that Tim Cook did a good job. There is evidence that AAPL is going to stop sandbagging their guidance as they have done in the past, and I think that it is good that the analysts have picked up on it.

I think that there is also a feeling that AAPL could either return some money, or use some for a share buyback in the future - something that really has been off the table in the past.

The iPhone 4S and Siri will provide for a bright quarter moving forward, and the thing that I liked most out of the conference call:

AAPL - "We've got a pipeline that is unbelievable" Tim Cook

I like the confidence in the pipeline in a post Steve Jobs era.

I hope that we can see the stock move over the 404.51 level in today's trading at some point...

David Sachdev said at 10/19/11 10:51 AM Price action was $402.94 -19.31 (-4.6%)

And we've finally broke out above the first 15 minute highs of 404.51. I'll take that as a bullish sign, and hope for 407 out of the day.

Wesley To said at 10/19/11 10:55 AM Price action was $402.94 -19.31 (-4.6%)

Very optimistic LONG but for us option players, the damage has been done. : \

David Sachdev said at 10/19/11 11:04 AM Price action was $403.09 -19.15 (-4.5%)

Yeah I hear ya...still up 150% on my call options, but that was over 300% yesterday :( I'm hoping to get up to the 407 mark today, and then hopefully into the teens on friday before I have to close those out..we'll see.

David Sachdev said at 10/19/11 11:05 AM Price action was $403.09 -19.15 (-4.5%)

Wow..and I see in the last few minutes we actually went up to 407.50. Wow....

David Sachdev said at 10/28/11 1:47 PM Price action was $404.83 0.14 (+0.0%)

Apple today officially launched the iPhone 4S in 22 new countries, marking the second round of launches for the device. The company began taking pre-orders last week ahead of the launch scheduled for the following countries: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland.

David Sachdev said at 10/29/11 11:09 AM Price action was $404.95 0.26 (+0.1%)

After seeing this article posted for the 15th time this morning, I thought I should mention it here.

The social media buzz like this is exactly what is going to drive higher sales of the 4S this quarter.

http://www.businessinsider.com/siri-review-2011-10?nr_email_referer=1&utm_s...

Larry Leviton agreed at 10/29/11 4:42 PM Price action was $404.95 0.26 (+0.1%)

Two weeks after iPhone 4 launch and people are still waiting in line to buy one. I see a whole stream of new products (iPad 3, iPhone 5, iTV) coming, while market share of iMacs (computers) slowly increases.

David Sachdev said at 11/10/11 11:31 AM Price action was $386.97 -8.31 (-2.1%)

Decided it was a good day to sell some PUT verticals on AAPL. Sold the Dec 370 and bought the Dec 355 for a 3.65 credit per contract.

David Sachdev said at 12/22/11 1:24 PM Price action was $398.95 2.51 (+0.6%)

I have been buying AAPL calls ahead of AAPL 400 and earnings in February. Plan is to sell some ahead of earnings...but will see as we approach.

David Sachdev said at 12/22/11 1:33 PM Price action was $398.90 2.45 (+0.6%)

He's probably the most notorious Apple bull on the Street, but Gene Munster's upside expectations for Apple stock (NASDAQ: AAPL - News) are eye-popping, even for him.

His price target is $607.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-trade-607-gene-munster-151138069.html

David Sachdev said at 2/2/12 4:17 PM Price action was $455.12 -1.07 (-0.2%)

I was having a hard time finding my long term AAPL coverage, so I started writing a new one for Feb 2013 @550/share:

So going for the long term coverage here...and will likely put in a short term one too - but if you are in the buy and forget category I think that AAPL can still bring you a nice return, even after the recent price gap.

We will have an event in March for starters, and expect:

New Macbook ProAirs this year

Apple TV

iPhone 5

New iPad

New carriers in China

Push in Brazil

Yeah....while expectations are of course lofty, I think this is still safer then most. We may seem some stagnation in the short term since the market has had an amazing January - but there is also so much money that is still on the sidelines guessing on a pullback or rest is just that - guessing. If you don't watch the market carefully, maybe wait for the next down day to put your money in.

Oh:

Earlier today, Japanese blog Macotakara claimed that Apple will be holding an "unusual" event in February, backtracking somewhat on its earlier claim of an early February iPad 3 event.

The Loop's well-connected Jim Dalrymple now reports that Apple will not hold an event in February, indicating that observers waiting for the iPad 3 or other major announcement from Apple will need to hold out until at least March.

David Sachdev said at 2/7/12 2:37 PM Price action was $468.66 4.69 (+1.0%)

Just putting it out there...thinking that the psychology of AAPL 475 is going to be tough. I may be considering some profit taking around then although we are approaching big announcement time. If we move past 475 easily, then that barrier will of course be as we approach 500.

Larry Leviton disagreed at 2/7/12 9:33 PM Price action was $468.83 4.86 (+1.0%)

AAPL will go over $700 by end of $700. There will be riots in the street over the iPhone 5. DO NOT SELL!!!

Ginger Gal said at 2/8/12 9:39 AM Price action was $468.83 0.00 (0.0%)

@Larry. Riots on the streets...riots for buying the iphone. How about riots about the suicides in the factories.
For now AAPL tearing to the upside!

Larry Leviton said at 2/8/12 10:05 AM Price action was $471.82 2.99 (+0.6%)

Ginger: So much for the myth that China is taking jobs away from Americans.

David Sachdev said at 2/8/12 2:55 PM Price action was $474.49 5.66 (+1.2%)

Break over 475 looking decent....hoping we see a bit more volume soon. Resetting eyes on 490 level.

David Sachdev said at 2/8/12 3:06 PM Price action was $474.89 6.06 (+1.3%)

Noticing the strong volume on the short break below 475....I guess we'll see.

Ginger Gal said at 2/8/12 9:45 PM Price action was $476.68 7.85 (+1.7%)

AAPL adding a new traget market..Walmarters!

http://9to5mac.com/2012/02/06/apple-in-early-discussions-to-open-stores-ins...

Ginger Gal said at 2/9/12 8:52 AM Price action was $476.68 7.85 (+1.7%)

I meant to say Sams Club not Walmarters...But, that may not be too far off in the future.

David Sachdev said at 2/9/12 9:59 AM Price action was $482.00 5.32 (+1.1%)

Looks like 484.78 can become support. Also - since Sam's Club is owned by Wal-Mart, they are Wal-marters technically!

Ginger Gal said at 2/9/12 10:58 AM Price action was $485.66 8.98 (+1.9%)

Yup!! Just wanted to be technically correct.

APPL melting up today.

Ginger Gal said at 2/9/12 11:10 AM Price action was $488.43 11.75 (+2.5%)

Apple (AAPL) plans to announce the launch of the iPad 3 in the first week of March, according to All Things Digital. Sources say the much-discussed next-generation iPad will feature a faster chip, improved graphics, and a retina display - falling in line with previous reports on the new device. Shares of AAPL +0.9% premarket

David Sachdev said at 2/18/12 12:58 PM Price action was $502.12 -0.09 (0.0%)

Apple to give money to iPhone 4 owners to settle Antennagate - http://yhoo.it/znEWkH

David Sachdev said at 3/14/12 11:02 AM Price action was $582.09 13.99 (+2.5%)

RTQ: 582.51 Taking some profits here on some shares....will open up a new coverage at some point.

Larry Leviton disagreed at 3/14/12 11:56 AM Price action was $580.52 12.42 (+2.2%)

I wished I had just said AAPL is going to $3000 by 2016 and be done with it. We are likely to get a dip when the iPad 3 goes on sale in two days but I think it will take a major crash to drive it down to the 200 dma.