Simply put, there are a lot of big IFS surrounding this latest capping strategy.  BP has shown repeatedly that their attempts to stem the spill amount to window dressing, tempered with measures to guard their profit.  Dispersants?  Yes, let's make the oil heavier and smaller so that it's more difficult to clean up, good one.  It's been three months and the best we can come up with is another capping strategy?  IF they can fit the cap at 1 mile below the surface, IF 150,000 lbs is heavy enough, IF the added pressure below the sea floor doesn't lead to another even more difficult burst to contain.

I bought some 34 puts to bet on this, fully aware that the public will believe whatever the webcams tell it.  Like most people, I am nowhere near an oil drilling expert, but even if I lose the money, this coverage is wrong, and the stock soars this week, I don't think this is the end of the gusher.  Too many experts, including BP's execs themselves, have admitted that a relief well is the only permanent solution, and that is IF they can drill at precisely the right angle and IF they can kill it without causing further damage, IF it can get done by end of month (no chance).  Even then, it will be difficult to ascertain quickly whether oil isn't still seeping into the ground, and we will be left to trust BP's comparisons of pressure in the relief well to the original well. 

I get the point of this cap.  It's to buy time.  It's also damage control for BP.  But ultimately, my opinion is that BP should not be the sole party responsible for cleaning this up.  Yes, it's their fault, and they share the blame with many others including our government.  But as long as oil is still flowing (whether the webcams show it or not), blame is not the issue here.  This short is based on a principle and the hope that the market accepts tomorrow's news with skepticism rather than undue faith placed in a corporation that has already failed the human race and duped us worse than any before it.