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CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. +48.3%
Initiated 8/23/11 $286.31 - Target 8/23/13 $424.62
Today $392.13
Made 37.0% Consider this Stock
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Josh Warner-Burke
Baltimore
User since Nov 2007
Covers CMG UA - Go to Blog
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We're just getting started, hold onto your burritos

Last night my friend told me, upon hearing I was eating Chipotle yet again while trying to work on this website, said I should buy stock in Chipotle.  Well, I have many times and today I took her advice and got in again, this time for the long haul, in my IRA.

In my opinion, there are few stocks out there with a better risk/reward profile than CMG.  Huge growth potential (think McDonalds in the 80s) and very low risk.  They have no debt and finance their growth - at a measured pace - purely through ongoing revenue.

They do not franchise their stores and are very deliberate in where they expand, ensuring they do not face a Starbucks in the early 2000s situation where each new store simply cannabilizes another one's sales.

Some of the recent concerns swirl around commodity costs, the increasing price of food.  But this story has been playing out since 2008, and along the way Chipotle has very successfully passed along cost increases to the customer without hurting their business.

Then there's the intangibles - think about Apple and the cult-like appeal of their products (even if you're a long-time hater, you probably want an iPad, don't you?) CMG offers food that is uniquely addictive.  

I don't put my real money into all my picks, but in this case I have.  At today's price and with a market cap of $9 billion, it seems like a bit of a value stock almost.  Not if you actually look at the metrics, but in a gut feeling kind of way.  Confidence 10.

 
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What People Are Saying...
Larry Leviton agreed at 8/23/11 12:03 PM Agree
OK to nibble at but I'll wait for CMG to cool off to 270 before biting into it.
Josh Warner-Burke said at 10/20/11 9:13 PM
Chipotle shares catch heat late http://www.marketwatch.com/story/microsoft-sandisk-results-on-after-hours-r...


"Chipotle said third-quarter profit was $60.4 million, or $1.90 a share, up from $48.2 million, or $1.52 a share, in the same period last year, aided by an increase in menu prices to offset higher costs for food."
Josh Warner-Burke said at 10/20/11 9:24 PM
Good article on TheStreet about Chipotle's earnings http://www.thestreet.com/story/11284308/1/burritos-profits-tasty-at-booming...
Josh Warner-Burke said at 10/24/11 4:21 PM
A good bull case for Chipotle on SeekingAlpha here, http://seekingalpha.com/article/301638-chipotle-earnings-proving-the-naysay...
Josh Warner-Burke said at 1/13/12 3:25 PM
Chipotle CFO says they are taking their time with growth and are willing to take a hit on food costs rather than raise prices on their customers.

http://www.thestreet.com/video/11375926/chipotle-cfo-were-not-in-a-hurry-to...
Ian Hall agreed at 5/9/12 9:43 AM Agree
I love this pick...I would be surprised to see $500/share by the time this closes.
David Sachdev said at 5/10/12 12:02 AM
Seems like a great time to buy this one.
Henry Chinaski agreed at 5/18/12 3:58 PM Agree
I think you can't go wrong with Chipotle, it's the next MCD
CMG $392.13 -2.37 (-0.6%)
 
 
CMG: Hedging Against the Crowd
Opened 346.50 1/4/12
Target 311.00 by 2/28/12
Today 392.13
Larry Leviton from Chicago

CMG: Ice Cream Dream
Opened 303.45 11/23/11
Target 340.00 by 12/31/11
Today 392.13
Larry Leviton from Chicago

CMG: Asian Explosion!
Opened 331.47 11/11/11
Target 338.00 by 3/30/12
Today 392.13
David Sachdev from Washington, DC

CMG: Options Industry Council
Opened 341.02 10/27/11
Target 300.00 by 12/16/11
Today 392.13
Larry Leviton from Chicago

 
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