CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill: Earnings never disappoint, as long lines portend

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	Josh Warner-Burke
	Baltimore User since Nov 2007	52
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Earnings never disappoint, as long lines portend

Yesterday at lunchtime I went to Chipotle in the Inner Harbor (in Baltimore) at 12 pm and it was as mobbed as I've ever seen it. I am going to take this as a sign, however anecdotal, that their earnings will not disappoint.

The consensus estimate is for $.95 a share, versus .78 in the same quarter last year. What I'm looking at on Ameritrade has Chipotle beating the consensus estimate for 5 quarters in a row. That is what you like to see.

Yesterday, even though the line was stretched all the way around the inside of the restaurant, I heard people saying 'I still want it. The line'll move fast.'

I've said it before, but these two factors are tantamount to their success:

1. People are addicted to their food

2. They are fast and efficient and the line moves quickly. (In this way it is the opposite of a Popeyes, where a line of two people may have you waiting 20 minutes, while they cook some chicken up.)

p.s. If you love chipotle, order online and you can skip the line. https://order.chipotle.com/

(I should get a freakin' commission for this stuff. I don't though.)

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What People Are Saying...

Josh Warner-Burke said at 4/21/10 4:10 PM Price action was $126.26 +2.18 (+1.8%)

Better than expected results here http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20100421006857/en/Chipotle-Mexican-Gr... will post link to conference call transcript tomorrow

Mike Barkett said at 4/21/10 4:28 PM Price action was $126.75 +2.67 (+2.2%)

bought 3 bols today for lunch

Josh Warner-Burke said at 4/22/10 10:03 AM Price action was $137.87 +11.12 (+8.8%)

Closed early after a bigger pop than I expected. Glad I bought a smattering of shares in real life. Made enough money off the real-world trade to feed my chipotle addiction for a while!

Mike Barkett agreed at 4/23/10 9:32 AM Price action was $144.72 0.00 (0.0%)

David Sachdev said at 10/17/10 5:34 PM Price action was $181.87 0.60 (+0.3%)

Have a play on CMG for this week? I was looking at the deep in the money calls...but also thinking of rolling the dice on cheaper ones.

Josh Warner-Burke said at 10/18/10 9:23 AM Price action was $181.87 0.00 (0.0%)

Well it's been surprising how much it has gone up after this last release. It's starting to feel fully valued to me. On the other hand I've been wrong in the past where 'star' stocks just keep going up. I don't doubt earnings will be good, will it pop the stock? I don't know.