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CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. +5.9%
Initiated 2/2/11 $224.23 - Target 2/18/11 $237.49
Closed $256.21 2/9/11 1:27 PM
Today $747.82
Made 14.3% Consider this Stock
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Josh Warner-Burke
User since Nov 2007
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Analysts estimates likely too low for Chipotle 4Q

With this headline I risk looking pretty stupid after earnings on Feb. 10, but that is the fun of this site isn't it?  I have a bit of armchair analysis and a pinch of gut feeling here - Q3 2009 for Chipotle 1.08, Q3 2010 1.52 (a 40.7% increase).  So if we simply apply the same year-over-year growth rate to Q4 2009, 0.99, we get 1.39.  Or .10 more than the current consensus estimate for earnings and just below the very top of analysts' range.  Add to that the fact that this company has beat consensus estimates 8 quarters in a row.

Add to that the fact that every Chipotle you know of is totally packed, with almost no drop-off seasonally, it would seem as casually evidence by this tweet

@: Stopped at Chipotle 2 get a quick bite 2 eat.. Place is packed! Line out the door! I mean it's gd but not THAT gd.

And my feeling is earnings will push this one up well into the 230s.  Real life call position opened with CMG right about at 222, while writing this it's gone up a bit.  But the sentiment still applies from 224.

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What People Are Saying...
Mike Barkett said at 2/2/11 10:26 AM
I totally agree with the sentiment re: earnings, I am just confused as to how the market will respond. Still deciding if I am a general seller this week.
Josh Warner-Burke said at 2/2/11 10:42 AM
Last year's Q4 earnings call transcript courtesy of seekingalpha here
Josh Warner-Burke said at 2/4/11 10:36 AM
Corresponding options gain so far: 266% - after 2 days
Josh Warner-Burke said at 2/9/11 1:27 PM
This has come so far so fast even without the earnings report that I feel compelled to close it. In real life I already made a nice gain from my options and got out of it. They could still surprise people and it could keep moving up, but I'm going to say 'dont look a gift horse in the mouth' with this one.
Josh Warner-Burke said at 2/10/11 4:12 PM
EPS was a huge beat at 1.47. So I was right the analysts were way off.
Josh Warner-Burke said at 2/10/11 5:15 PM WSJ mentions traffic growth as well as plays up the recent immigration-related issues that have been a minor wrinkle for their otherwise positive brand image.
Larry Leviton agreed at 2/11/11 5:14 PM Agree
Josh: Good call. Chinese love spicy food. CMG should do well in China. I am looking at CCSC, but I like CMG better.
Josh Warner-Burke said at 2/18/11 1:15 PM
Well @jimjcramer is bullish on CMG. No further comment.
Mike Barkett said at 2/18/11 2:14 PM
uh oh, that means it's the top!
Josh Warner-Burke said at 2/24/11 11:51 AM
Get a buy-one-get-one-free coupon for Chipotle just for watching a video ad (1:30) for NBC's Americas Next Great Restaurant, which features Steve Ells, founder/CEO of CMG.
Josh Warner-Burke said at 3/3/11 4:48 PM
Apparently Chipotle will be testing the waters with an Asian themed restaurant. I had heard some rumors to this effect but this is the first mainstream article I've seen. This is what @jimjcramer was talking about in comparing CMG to the Gap, with a 'second idea'.

"The fast-casual category doesn't have a strong Asian player, says Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Technomic, a restaurant industry consulting and research firm.

He sees a good opportunity for Chipotle to come in and tap that niche." Hear that PFCB (PF Changs which owns Pei Wei)?
Josh Warner-Burke said at 4/12/11 12:50 PM
Chipotle unveils details about its new Asian concept
CMG $747.82 0.00 (0.0%)
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