GRPN Groupon: IPO here we come

Analyst Profile

	David Sachdev
	Washington, DC User since Dec 2009	38
Covers CMG DDD MGM AAPL - Go to Blog
Consider this Analyst so we email you when they make picks

IPO here we come

So I'm not a big fan of the couponing space as far as a P/E...and I agree with NPR that they have jumped the shark, but it is an IPO, and I feel compelled to put in a coverage even if I don't really buy. This is a stock that I might trade, but it's not an investment.

So we've got short term low at 25.9...and early short term at 27, and some level of resistance at 29, and a high of 31.14 so far.

Not that much data...but IPO trades usually aren't based on much other then:

New! and Shiny!

So often if you put in your buys right...take your gains when they present themselves you will get many opportunities to make money.

Oh..and my friends that work over at LivingSocial...yeah, I love you all, and the company is great here in DC...but I still don't see people talking about couponing companies in 10 years. I'm glad that you all are trying to follow the Amazon plan of diversifying - but I think it is going to have to extent more then just trips, travel, logding, etc. But please prove me wrong.

Comment on this Article

Contribute to the conversation

Blog a Stock

Enter a Symbol

Set a Target Price

or Set % Change

Choose a Target Date

Once you have entered a symbol, information about that security will appear here.

What People Are Saying...

David Sachdev said at 11/4/11 1:03 PM Price action was $28.90 8.90 (+44.5%)

If you are day-trading this thing, I think I would sell if i falls below 29.

David Sachdev said at 11/4/11 2:36 PM Price action was $28.07 8.07 (+40.4%)

Once again...if you are day-trading, if it bounces off the 27, there is your buy point. (or consider covering a short there...but I doubt it is short-able yet from your brokerage).

Hmm..a question that comes into play with these short GRPN coverages - could you have made the trade?

Alex O'Reilly said at 11/4/11 3:55 PM Price action was $27.00 7.00 (+35.0%)

If it weren't almost 4pm, I'd test that theory and let you know. :)

David Sachdev said at 11/4/11 3:58 PM Price action was $27.00 7.00 (+35.0%)

My guess is that it will be easier to short on Monday, and given 3 day settlement won't be a problem at all by mid-week.

David Sachdev said at 11/14/11 9:38 AM Price action was $24.25 0.00 (0.0%)

Options out today....apparently with a high premium. I think they will drive the stock down, not up. Really doubting I'm going to get my bounce in the timeframe.....but not giving up all hope. As the article mentioned, I'm pretty bearish longterm, but I don't believe that you could have really gotten bearish on IPO day due to the lack of float.

David Sachdev said at 11/14/11 11:00 PM Price action was $24.07 -0.18 (-0.7%)

The truth about shorting Groupon:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/14/us-groupon-shortsellers-idUSTRE7A...

Mike Barkett said at 11/15/11 12:45 AM Price action was $24.07 -0.18 (-0.7%)

It's a fair point, but January puts have been written, and you can write call contracts if you have the right type of account. So I think it is possible to make real money "shorting" GRPN if you want.

David Sachdev said at 11/15/11 10:22 AM Price action was $23.80 -0.27 (-1.1%)

The premium is just a bit too much for me given a 6 month lock-up on shares and an IPO price of $20....but that does bring up a great opportunity for a short trade for May on a pop of this stock.

In fact, the July 2012 options are more attractive to me then the January ones, and I see that there is some volume and open interest at the 15 and 20 level.