MCP Molycorp: It's on sale!

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	David Sachdev
	Washington, DC User since Dec 2009	38
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It's on sale!

Rare earths were hot....when the price was twice where it is today...but nobody seems to like them. My plan was to wait until the middle to end of January to buy, but I decided to dip my toe into the water, and start my purchasing today....and I purchased some MCP here down at these levels.

The hard drive market has helped this quick decline...given the floodings, and the rise in hard drive prices - that was a user of rare earths that disappeared quickly. It will some back...well, at least partially - since I think that this flood will really help make the SSD drive the standard a bit quicker then it would have otherwise.

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What People Are Saying...

Mike Barkett agreed at 12/30/11 5:55 PM Price action was $23.98 0.52 (+2.2%)

David Sachdev said at 12/30/11 7:03 PM Price action was $23.98 0.52 (+2.2%)

Since Thailand was hit with heavy flooding back in July, and estimates were cut across the board for drive shipments and PC shipments this fall, it turns out, writes Berger, that ?recent checks suggest that disk drive capacity is returning more quickly than the industry previously expected.?

Nidec, a major manufacturer of motor controllers and base plates, confirmed most facilities are now back on line. Western Digital (WDC) resumed production in its Bang Pa-in facility and announced its slider (biggest HDD production gate) facility will be on line in 1Q12.

Specifically, Berger forecasts the industry will produce 135 million drives in the first quarter, up from a prior estimate of 125 million. That will rise to 162 million units in Q2. Mind you, those levels are 18% and 4% below actual demand, respectively, he estimates.

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2011/12/27/lsi-fbr-ups-estimates-d...

David Sachdev said at 1/3/12 11:44 AM Price action was $25.04 1.06 (+4.4%)

Added here again today at 25.06

David Sachdev said at 1/5/12 8:52 AM Price action was $25.55 0.43 (+1.7%)

This is good news for rare earths:

Shares of disk-drive maker Seagate (STX) rose $1.25, or over 7%, to $18.07 in late trading after the company pre-announced fiscal Q2 sales and gross profit above what analysts had been expecting.

Seagate sees revenue for the three months ended in December in a range of $3.1 billion to $3.2 billion, above the $2.87 billion analysts had been modeling, based on sales of 47 million disk drives in the quarter. Seagate had warned as recently as November 28th that its revenue would total $2.8 billion and units would total perhaps 43 million.

David Sachdev said at 1/6/12 10:22 AM Price action was $25.50 0.00 (0.0%)

Added here.

Ginger Gal agreed at 1/6/12 3:13 PM Price action was $26.81 1.31 (+5.1%)

Still holding!!

David Sachdev said at 1/12/12 11:46 AM Price action was $28.46 0.82 (+3.0%)

Added today at $28.75

Ginger Gal agreed at 1/14/12 8:14 PM Price action was $28.69 -1.06 (-3.6%)

One can also buy the MCP A shares (MCP-A) and get a 7.5 percent dividend. A less risky way to participate.

David Sachdev said at 1/17/12 7:32 AM Price action was $28.69 -1.06 (-3.6%)

Fast Money is doing a special on Rare Earths this evening. I think I will likely add to my position today.

Mike Barkett said at 1/17/12 3:34 PM Price action was $28.53 -0.16 (-0.6%)

do you know for sure it will be positive?

David Sachdev said at 1/17/12 3:40 PM Price action was $28.57 -0.12 (-0.4%)

I don't - but from the little blurb I caught this morning at 7 a.m. it seemed to - mentioned "make a fortune in rare earths".

David Sachdev said at 1/25/12 10:58 AM Price action was $30.58 1.67 (+5.8%)

A very nice move today!

David Sachdev said at 2/1/12 8:07 AM Price action was $30.98 -0.14 (-0.4%)

Up another 8-10% on M&A on a percentage this AM. Will have to look into details because if they are selling off a percentage of the company at these low prices that could be negative though in the longer run.

David Sachdev said at 2/1/12 9:38 AM Price action was $30.98 0.00 (0.0%)

Initial comment lost again - but essentially, prices of M&A at 31.20/share. Lower then I would like, but wouldn't it always be. I think this may open up Chile for MCP, so thought is overall positive. But would love for them not to sell off parts of the company at these low prices. Curious on what others think.

Mike Barkett said at 2/1/12 9:52 AM Price action was $31.53 0.55 (+1.8%)

nice. Looks like a good couple of weeks for all rare earths, as the REMX pick is up too.

Harvey Dentist agreed at 2/18/12 2:51 PM Price action was $28.06 -0.08 (-0.3%)

earnings are coming this week it should run up !! buy ACTC and CBIS

Ginger Gal said at 2/22/12 9:16 PM Price action was $29.09 0.67 (+2.4%)

Starting info for tomorrow's conf call:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/molycorp-to-launch-sequential-start-up-of-...

David Sachdev said at 3/9/12 12:02 PM Price action was $29.46 3.48 (+13.4%)

Interesting M&A news....too bad I didn't own the company that was being acquired. But nice run here on MCP

David Sachdev said at 3/9/12 3:59 PM Price action was $30.27 4.29 (+16.5%)

An even stronger run into the close as the market pulls back. I hope that this means that the 30 level will become support, and that this stock sees higher next week.

David Sachdev said at 3/29/12 3:41 PM Price action was $33.91 2.38 (+7.5%)

Impressive move today!

Ginger Gal said at 4/2/12 9:11 AM Price action was $33.83 0.00 (0.0%)

MCP Takeover rumor: 8:25 AM Molycorp (MCP) pops on a Bloomberg report seeing the company as a takeover play, and suggesting BHP and Rio Tinto (RIO) as possible buyers. One hedge fund manager (long the stock?) suggests the firm could fetch $60/share against the Friday close of $33.83. Shares +3% premarket. Comment! [Commodities, M&A]

David Sachdev said at 7/5/12 11:45 AM Price action was $22.72 0.91 (+4.2%)

I've been adding to MCP the last week - mainly with calls that are 3 months out. Hope it pays off.

Ginger Gal said at 8/1/12 11:19 PM Price action was $16.62 -0.80 (-4.6%)

MCP earnings tomorrow. I think they will do well but need to keep an eye on it. MCP is doing business with our defense folks and thus a solid stock. wonder if today's drop was for "special" folks to buy at low prices.