MGM MGM Mirage: Time to gamble again

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	Josh Warner-Burke
	Baltimore User since Nov 2007	56
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Time to gamble again

I just read this,

http://news.punchjump.com/article.php?id=8885

which is not exactly 'news' more basking in the glow of $8.5 billion spent on the City Center project. It's nice, shocker. For that much money it had better be nice.

Anyway I will leave the issues of declining Las Vegas real estate, average Joe Consumer's dwindling budget for Vegas jaunts, and the virtues of being in Macao (which LVS is more so) alone. I will just say that I follow the MGM and LVS charts pretty closely and at 11.31, there's a better chance of a run back up to 14 than a retest below 10.

But nobody said gambling is for the meek.

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What People Are Saying...

Josh Warner-Burke said at 11/7/09 12:11 PM Price action was $9.75 +0.01 (+0.1%)

As it turns out I was very wrong in the short term, it has bounced down and hit resistance at 9, but it's now going up and probably will still hit my target or close to it. It is likely that I will close this early, but I don't think for a loss.

Josh Warner-Burke said at 11/11/09 3:47 PM Price action was $10.83 +0.43 (+4.1%)

I would like to paste in some useful info that I gleaned from a comment rebutting this article -
http://www.themoneytimes.com/featured/20091111/doomed-stocks-you-should-avo...

(The text is probably written by someone on the MGM payroll, but all the same.)

- MGM s convention booking cancellations are going down significantly, source conference call as of November 09.

- MGM s convention booking window exceeds the booking window of 30 to 60 days and goes well beyond the same, source conference call as of November 09.

- MGM s occupancy rates in the prime resorts in Las Vegas are going up and are staying above 90% for practically all hotels, source conference call and MGM Mirage Additional Investor Information (supplementary information)

- MGM s room rates (Revenues per available room, so called REVPAR) are increasing, source conference call and MGM Mirage Additional Investor Information (supplementary information)

- MGM is also building MGM Hospitality, a new unit where it gets a management fee for the provision of its high quality brand and management expertise, this should contribute a couple of hundred millions to EBITDA per annum over the next couple of years. (source Nov conference call)

- MGM might go public with its MGM Macau Resort.

- Rating agencies are looking to upgrade the credit rating as the situation of financing is improving

- MGM s firm commitment is to focus on divestment, not investment for the next 2 years (source Conference all, Nov 08)

- City Center opens this year 2010, and a large portion of the 35 to 40 million Las Vegas visitors next year practically would like and most probably will see it.

Josh Warner-Burke said at 11/19/09 11:26 AM Price action was $10.93 -0.91 (-7.7%)

I am actually more bullish on LVS; just haven't written an article on it yet.