NFLX Netflix: Hasty Decisions

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	Wesley To
	Mill Creek, WA User since Jul 2011	64
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Hasty Decisions

One decision after another, its almost as if the higher ups are panicing. They foresee bad things and they are trying to be proactive about it but they are making some pretty hasty decisions.

I believe they are splitting the business so they can sell off their DVD portion of the company. This could be a good idea to help grow the future of the streaming side but in the meantime its going to be a rough road for them, especially if they split the websites.

In our time its all about integration, its not about seperating and adding yet another site users have to visit in order to use the service you are providing. It should be a one stop shop, this stock will see some more downside before fighting back...if it can fight back.

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What People Are Saying...

Josh Warner-Burke said at 9/19/11 1:44 PM Price action was $151.19 -4.00 (-2.6%)

Even though I've been a persistent bull for Netflix, I really agree with this sentiment after reading that email from Mr. Hastings today. It was touching that he was apologizing to me personally... but at time he did seem defensive. And my initial reaction is, why do I want to go to two websites, and have two charges on my credit card?

Wesley To said at 9/19/11 1:49 PM Price action was $151.30 -3.89 (-2.5%)

Yea, I thought the same thing. Integration is a very obvious thing to me and they are much smarter than I am. So the only reason I can see for going away from that is to sell it off. He did quote somewhere that he wants people working on DVDs to focus on DVDs and vice-versa for streaming but seriously you can't do that internally? That was just a PR quote IMO. I'd be willing to buy "Qwikster" stock on the chance of them selling it...

David Sachdev said at 9/19/11 2:39 PM Price action was $151.44 -3.75 (-2.4%)

I guess we may end up on opposite sides of this trade, because I'm considering a NFLX long at around 140. We'll see how that action goes.

Josh Warner-Burke said at 9/19/11 2:47 PM Price action was $149.70 -5.49 (-3.5%)

One thing I like is that they'll be doing the video game rentals. I always said they should do that.

Wesley To said at 9/19/11 2:57 PM Price action was $149.70 -5.49 (-3.5%)

I was actually surprised no one has done that yet. You'd think Gamestop or something like Gamefly would've gotten into it when they saw the success of DVD streaming.

@David, my terminology is still subpar can you explain what "considering NFLX long at around 140 means" I was under the impression considering something long is bullish? 140 is under the current price right now, sorry for the dumb question. : )

David Sachdev said at 9/19/11 5:10 PM Price action was $143.75 -11.44 (-7.4%)

Sorry - I meant that I think that there might be sufficient resistance at 140 for Netflix to hold, and get a bit of a bounce from it's recent fall. I guess we will see in the coming days.

If it breaks 140, I say watch 0ut below, I don't think it is stopping at 130!

Larry Leviton agreed at 9/19/11 8:54 PM Price action was $143.75 -11.44 (-7.4%)

NFLX might bounce off 140, but this market sure reminds me of late 2007.

David Sachdev said at 9/20/11 10:48 AM Price action was $132.44 -11.31 (-7.9%)

Wow, blew right through 140. The short squeeze is going to come at some point in time, but apparently not yet!

Nice Trade!

Wesley To said at 9/20/11 10:57 AM Price action was $132.82 -10.93 (-7.6%)

Zing. Its a good morning for me. : )

David Sachdev said at 9/20/11 5:03 PM Price action was $130.03 -13.72 (-9.5%)

Wow, that's one hell of an AGL you've got there. I'm thinking about handing you my money and having you trade for me!

How many of your coverages do you take the trade in?

Wesley To said at 9/20/11 6:45 PM Price action was $130.03 -13.72 (-9.5%)

I actually partake in all of these IRL. I don't quite have the same discipline as I do here when it comes to real money so I messed some of these trades up. I am still new to trading but so far I've done pretty well. Thanks for the confidence boost, appreciate it.

David Sachdev said at 9/20/11 11:45 PM Price action was $130.03 -13.72 (-9.5%)

Well when you are dealing with real money you have to keep in my stops, market swings, and the fact that you can't always have shares available to short - or get the price that may be quoted for the number of shares you want.

It is quite normal for people to do better when they paper trade then when they trade in real life.

Also - that "I'm getting greedy" warning light doesn't light up as often when real money isn't involved!

Josh Warner-Burke said at 9/21/11 3:11 AM Price action was $130.03 -13.72 (-9.5%)

The Wall Street Journal: "By late afternoon on Monday, more than 16,000 users had left comments on the Netflix blog - and the overwhelming majority were livid...

The transition from physical to digital hasn't been easy for any media business. The pain often has been exacerbated by attempts to hang onto their old businesses without focusing on new ones. Mr. Hastings is betting that rankling subscribers is preferable to falling behind those changes." - http://on.wsj.com/qFqwMo

Josh Warner-Burke said at 9/22/11 10:52 AM Price action was $130.59 2.09 (+1.6%)

After a week in which Netflix Inc. shares shed more than 38% of their value, one of Wall Street?s most-bearish analysts raised his rating on the company, saying Netflix could be setting itself up to sell its online video-streaming business to Amazon.com Inc.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/netflix-lining-up-sale-to-amazon-analyst-s...

Wesley To said at 9/22/11 1:39 PM Price action was $128.93 0.43 (+0.3%)

Too much support, with this down market it should have tanked. I'm bowing out and taking my win.