NFLX Netflix: Momentum

Analyst Profile

	Wesley To
	Mill Creek, WA User since Jul 2011	64
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Momentum

This is a very low confidence pick. I have gone back and fourth on this so many times in the last couple days.

Bearish:

1. Price increases loses DVD goers and I think thats where their "current" income was coming from

2. Trying to split the company then saying it was a mistake...

3. Just an overall panic in management

4. Blockbuster offers a better DVD combo plan (At least since I have a blockbuster down the street)

5. The cost of expansion into other countries

6. I go with the momentum

Bullish:

1. Low expectations

2. They have beaten estimates SO many times and have the track record to do so

3. Reed hastings makes weird decisions but might have something sneaky up his sleeve

4. They have lost 60% already in the last 3 months

There are more reasons to go either way, this is a complete gamble but I'm still bearish on NFLX

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What People Are Saying...

Wesley To agreed at 10/24/11 4:31 PM Price action was $118.84 1.80 (+1.5%)

What an absolutely horrible report. Looking good for me. I shouldve bought a PUT instead of a spread.

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/NFLX/1462732773x0x511277/85b155bc-69...%20Letter%20Q3%202011.pdf

Mike Barkett said at 10/24/11 8:03 PM Price action was $118.84 1.80 (+1.5%)

Well done, Wes. I basically flipped a coin on mine, and decided to do a short-term long because I already had a long-term short. But as I said in the article, it's low confidence. Basically everything the bears ever said about NFLX's long term viability is coming true.

Wesley To said at 10/25/11 10:42 AM Price action was $76.02 -42.82 (-36.0%)

Talking about a homerun... 53% in two days. I knew it was going to be a big move but this is a cliff. Sadly, I see it still going to $50 before going back up...

Josh Warner-Burke said at 10/25/11 11:12 AM Price action was $77.16 -41.69 (-35.1%)

This is going to top the all-time best picks list or be really close. More great timing Wesley.

Wesley To said at 10/28/11 11:53 AM Price action was $83.66 2.80 (+3.5%)

Think coin stars raise in prices will help this stock? Personally, I've gone back to Blockbusters combo plan and its awesome.

Wesley To said at 10/28/11 4:48 PM Price action was $84.14 3.28 (+4.1%)

lol damnit, I thought this was a November target. I would closed this on day 1. Oh well, still a good win.