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NFLX Netflix, Inc.
-62.0%
Initiated 5/13/10 $118.30 - Target 5/13/12 $45.00
Closed $77.95
5/15/12 9:31 AM
Today $
228.74
Made
51.8%
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Analyst Profile
Mike Barkett
Washington, DC
User since
Nov 2007
56
Covers
GRPN
FB
GRPN
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Re: Going to 120...and your Living Room
Real-time quote says
NFLX
is at about 120 right now, so it's at your target. I'd consider taking the win and closing this one out. Not telling you what to do, but my personal feeling is that there is a bubble in
NFLX
. It's the cat's meow right now in terms of digital video delivery, but I think all their lofty 2010 growth has already been built into the price. And as at least one Wall St analyst firm has pointed out, the barrier to entry in digital delivery is much lower than the
DVD
delivery sweet spot
NFLX
filled for so many years. I hope I am not too early to the party on this, but I think they will deflate and then possibly be acquired at a price much lower than $6B where they are now.
This is a reply coverage to
NFLX: Going to 120...and your Living Room
by
David Sachdev
on 4/26/10.
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What People Are Saying...
Mike Barkett
said at 5/13/10 3:54 PM
almost pulled the trigger on selling the puts above 1.60 for a 69% gain in one day. We'll see if I get lucky tomorrow. Hoping I'm in for a multi-bagger.
Josh Warner-Burke
said at 5/13/10 5:01 PM
I didn't even notice your target price. Fat chance
NFLX
will go to $45 ever - you're just being hyperbolic there.
Mike Barkett
said at 5/13/10 6:27 PM
a lot can happen in 2 years. This same stock was below 30 two years ago, and that was before the big collapse.
Josh Warner-Burke
said at 5/14/10 10:58 AM
Well regardless of long term direction, you did a great job timing this one.
Mike Barkett
said at 5/14/10 10:59 AM
got lucky today... sold the puts for a cool 188% gain in less than 24 hours!
Josh Warner-Burke
said at 5/14/10 11:03 AM
Drinks are on Mike tonight!
Josh Warner-Burke
said at 5/26/10 4:44 PM
A bullish technical case for
NFLX
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10767842/5/charts-of-the-day-fifth-third-net...
Mike Barkett
said at 9/2/10 2:33 PM
ok I'll admit this is one hell of a breakout for nflx and I may even gamble on some calls if tomorrow is a down day, but it's still going to peak soon.
Mike Barkett
said at 9/23/10 1:18 PM
tough to hold onto this one as the stock skyrockets and the coverage kill my score, but this is a very long term coverage for a reason.
Original sentiment was based on belief that nflx will NOT be the dominant player in
HD
streaming of desirable content. Wildly successful marketing lately, which explains the stock performance, but the key words in the long term story are
HD
and DESIRABLE. The door is still open for someone else to dominate this space in the next 18 months.
David Sachdev
said at 9/23/10 2:20 PM
I wonder if we will look back on today and the news of the Blockbuster bankruptcy as a short or medium term high for Netflix.
Josh Warner-Burke
said at 2/22/11 1:47 PM
I can't believe you left this ridiculous prediction open while Netflix shot through $200.
Mike Barkett
said at 2/22/11 1:51 PM
well it's in the same category as the BBI pick, which would have gotten margin called in real life. I figure since there's still tons of time left, I'll see how it does and only close it if the stock splits. Probably killing my score. Nice big drop today.
Ian Hall
said at 2/22/11 3:11 PM
Today's drop is pure market brownulation. I'm Cramer-esque on this one and may write a $300 coverage. People who know little to nothing about stocks are bulls in this china shop and there's still a rush and a push before this one comes tumbling down.
David Sachdev
said at 2/22/11 3:18 PM
I think I agree....I'm up about $300 on my options play, and likely will close it out before the day is done...but we'll see.
David Sachdev
said at 2/22/11 3:52 PM
Closed out my
NFLX
put for a gain of $255.00. A little profit to offset the down day otherwise.
Josh Warner-Burke
said at 2/22/11 4:13 PM
Yeah there are plenty of headwinds for
NFLX
but I think today's drop is really more just recent positions abandoning, which will happen on any big day with a big recent gainer. It's possible though the Amazon news will start to make a dent in it, but it may take time.
Josh Warner-Burke
said at 10/18/11 3:57 PM
Wow this coverage is back in the black, so to speak, after a disastrous run. Maybe as usual you were right but wayyy early.
Mike Barkett
said at 10/25/11 10:11 AM
hoooooooly moley
Mike Barkett
said at 11/23/11 11:37 AM
This could turn out to be the most amazing ultra-conservative 2-bagger ever.
Mike Barkett
said at 12/28/11 11:42 AM
If it drops below 60, I think I will finally close it.
Mike Barkett
said at 1/4/12 2:39 PM
Similarly, if it bursts above 80 I might consider closing as well, although there's still time.
Mike Barkett
said at 1/6/12 5:13 PM
It's 2010 all over again! Buy lots of
NFLX
!! Maybe not yet, we'll see...
Mike Barkett
said at 5/19/12 12:50 AM
You know, this historic ProofTrader coverage finished in pretty good shape. But I still wouldn't be surprised if it hits its target. And actually, at that point I'd be a STRONG BUY on
NFLX
.
Mike Barkett
said at 7/25/12 12:56 PM
Getting closer to buy territory, but not yet. :)
NFLX
$
228.74
2.56 (+13.1%)
Coverage
To Now
Today
Related
Up Today
NFLX
: A Bet on Streaming
Opened
102.93 1/19/12
Target
112.00 by 2/24/12
Today
228.74
David Sachdev from Washington, DC
NFLX
: March 100 Call contracts are hot right now!
Opened
76.64 1/4/12
Target
88.00 by 3/30/12
Today
228.74
David Sachdev from Washington, DC
NFLX
: Stabilized at 90
Opened
89.06 11/9/11
Target
128.00 by 3/30/12
Today
228.74
Henry Chinaski from South L.A.
NFLX
: Selloff overdone, still the market leader
Opened
87.43 11/3/11
Target
108.00 by 2/29/12
Today
228.74
Josh Warner-Burke from Baltimore
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