NFLX Netflix: Re: Going to 120...and your Living Room

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	Mike Barkett
	Washington, DC User since Nov 2007	56
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Re: Going to 120...and your Living Room

Real-time quote says NFLX is at about 120 right now, so it's at your target. I'd consider taking the win and closing this one out. Not telling you what to do, but my personal feeling is that there is a bubble in NFLX. It's the cat's meow right now in terms of digital video delivery, but I think all their lofty 2010 growth has already been built into the price. And as at least one Wall St analyst firm has pointed out, the barrier to entry in digital delivery is much lower than the DVD delivery sweet spot NFLX filled for so many years. I hope I am not too early to the party on this, but I think they will deflate and then possibly be acquired at a price much lower than $6B where they are now.

This is a reply coverage to NFLX: Going to 120...and your Living Room by David Sachdev on 4/26/10.

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What People Are Saying...

Mike Barkett said at 5/13/10 3:54 PM Price action was $109.08 +1.25 (+1.2%)

almost pulled the trigger on selling the puts above 1.60 for a 69% gain in one day. We'll see if I get lucky tomorrow. Hoping I'm in for a multi-bagger.

Josh Warner-Burke said at 5/13/10 5:01 PM Price action was $110.01 +2.18 (+2.0%)

I didn't even notice your target price. Fat chance NFLX will go to $45 ever - you're just being hyperbolic there.

Mike Barkett said at 5/13/10 6:27 PM Price action was $110.01 +2.18 (+2.0%)

a lot can happen in 2 years. This same stock was below 30 two years ago, and that was before the big collapse.

Josh Warner-Burke said at 5/14/10 10:58 AM Price action was $102.72 -7.30 (-6.6%)

Well regardless of long term direction, you did a great job timing this one.

Mike Barkett said at 5/14/10 10:59 AM Price action was $102.72 -7.30 (-6.6%)

got lucky today... sold the puts for a cool 188% gain in less than 24 hours!

Josh Warner-Burke said at 5/14/10 11:03 AM Price action was $103.14 -6.87 (-6.2%)

Drinks are on Mike tonight!

Josh Warner-Burke said at 5/26/10 4:44 PM Price action was $104.80 -0.20 (-0.2%)

A bullish technical case for NFLX http://www.thestreet.com/story/10767842/5/charts-of-the-day-fifth-third-net...

Mike Barkett said at 9/2/10 2:33 PM Price action was $137.76 2.85 (+2.1%)

ok I'll admit this is one hell of a breakout for nflx and I may even gamble on some calls if tomorrow is a down day, but it's still going to peak soon.

Mike Barkett said at 9/23/10 1:18 PM Price action was $162.60 5.67 (+3.6%)

tough to hold onto this one as the stock skyrockets and the coverage kill my score, but this is a very long term coverage for a reason.

Original sentiment was based on belief that nflx will NOT be the dominant player in HD streaming of desirable content. Wildly successful marketing lately, which explains the stock performance, but the key words in the long term story are HD and DESIRABLE. The door is still open for someone else to dominate this space in the next 18 months.

David Sachdev said at 9/23/10 2:20 PM Price action was $162.43 5.50 (+3.5%)

I wonder if we will look back on today and the news of the Blockbuster bankruptcy as a short or medium term high for Netflix.

Josh Warner-Burke said at 2/22/11 1:47 PM Price action was $221.92 -13.59 (-5.8%)

I can't believe you left this ridiculous prediction open while Netflix shot through $200.

Mike Barkett said at 2/22/11 1:51 PM Price action was $221.89 -13.62 (-5.8%)

well it's in the same category as the BBI pick, which would have gotten margin called in real life. I figure since there's still tons of time left, I'll see how it does and only close it if the stock splits. Probably killing my score. Nice big drop today.

Ian Hall said at 2/22/11 3:11 PM Price action was $222.95 -12.56 (-5.3%)

Today's drop is pure market brownulation. I'm Cramer-esque on this one and may write a $300 coverage. People who know little to nothing about stocks are bulls in this china shop and there's still a rush and a push before this one comes tumbling down.

David Sachdev said at 2/22/11 3:18 PM Price action was $222.47 -13.04 (-5.5%)

I think I agree....I'm up about $300 on my options play, and likely will close it out before the day is done...but we'll see.

David Sachdev said at 2/22/11 3:52 PM Price action was $222.17 -13.34 (-5.7%)

Closed out my NFLX put for a gain of $255.00. A little profit to offset the down day otherwise.

Josh Warner-Burke said at 2/22/11 4:13 PM Price action was $222.03 -13.48 (-5.7%)

Yeah there are plenty of headwinds for NFLX but I think today's drop is really more just recent positions abandoning, which will happen on any big day with a big recent gainer. It's possible though the Amazon news will start to make a dent in it, but it may take time.

Josh Warner-Burke said at 10/18/11 3:57 PM Price action was $111.30 -6.03 (-5.1%)

Wow this coverage is back in the black, so to speak, after a disastrous run. Maybe as usual you were right but wayyy early.

Mike Barkett said at 10/25/11 10:11 AM Price action was $75.26 -43.58 (-36.7%)

hoooooooly moley

Mike Barkett said at 11/23/11 11:37 AM Price action was $69.99 -0.46 (-0.7%)

This could turn out to be the most amazing ultra-conservative 2-bagger ever.

Mike Barkett said at 12/28/11 11:42 AM Price action was $68.73 -1.87 (-2.6%)

If it drops below 60, I think I will finally close it.

Mike Barkett said at 1/4/12 2:39 PM Price action was $77.67 5.43 (+7.5%)

Similarly, if it bursts above 80 I might consider closing as well, although there's still time.

Mike Barkett said at 1/6/12 5:13 PM Price action was $86.29 6.99 (+8.8%)

It's 2010 all over again! Buy lots of NFLX!! Maybe not yet, we'll see...

Mike Barkett said at 5/19/12 12:50 AM Price action was $69.96 -2.01 (-2.8%)

You know, this historic ProofTrader coverage finished in pretty good shape. But I still wouldn't be surprised if it hits its target. And actually, at that point I'd be a STRONG BUY on NFLX.

Mike Barkett said at 7/25/12 12:56 PM Price action was $59.86 -20.53 (-25.5%)

Getting closer to buy territory, but not yet. :)