We had quite a run there. Only a week ago I admit I was as optimistic as anyone. Over time I have learned that my own optimism peaks right before I should probably liquidate my whole portfolio.  In essence I absorb the energy of everyone else, I'm not enough of a contrarian. 

Well at this point I think we are due for a downward move over the next month, and QID is my preferred vehicle for shorting the market.  It's a double-inverse QQQQ ETF.  (The Qs tracks the Nasdaq-100.) These things can be dangerous, if the market goes up you lose money quick.  Also because of overhead, it's not a long term vehicle.

Of course I could try to pick an individual stock (like Apple or Goldman) and short that, but I could be right about the overall trend but wrong about the specific stock.

Why do I feel pessimistic?  There are a number of big things I could talk about, like jobs.  Although consumers are loosening the pursestrings and doing some shopping, the jobs picture is only beginning to turn the corner.  
 
Housing.  The housing credit has artificially helped the housing market, and it will expire at the end of April, which has led to a glut of houses on the market.  On my street there are five houses I could walk to in three minutes that are for sale.   Presumably, they're trying to take advantage of whatever is left out there on the demand side before the tax credit runs out.  But with so many other people doing the same thing, they're likely to be disappointed.  

You've got the SEC action against Goldman which I will save an in-depth discussion of for a later pick, possibly long GS once the dust has settled.  This news, which should affect only banks, triggering a broader sell-off worries me.  

Of course not everything's down today.  Blockbuster (BBI), as of this writing, is up 47% just today.  That is pretty amazing considering quality stocks like UA and NFLX are down 2%.  But to me this just indicates where we are in the bull-bear cycle.  With the big, quality names (AAPL, AMZN) getting tapped out, money is flowing to low-quality speculative stocks.

Then there's the recent reaction to Google's earnings.  They were good earnings and yet the stock sold off.  That is the best indicator I have that this rally has topped out, when people look for any excuse to sell. 
 

p.s. I will freely admit in the past I have been really bad at market timing.  So this might be a good time for you to make the exact opposite pick.  

The point of ProofTrader is not that we have all the answers; it's a dialectic.  A community exchanging ideas and information, friends bouncing ideas off of each other.