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SLV iShares Silver Trust -9.5%
Initiated 4/26/11 $44.20 - Target 6/30/11 $40.00
Closed $35.42 5/6/11 11:16 AM
Today $15.07
Made 24.8% Consider this Stock
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Analyst Profile

Francisco Logan
San Antonio
User since Jan 2010
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Consider this Analyst
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Cramer says buy silver, so I'll sell

Silver is the "poor man's gold" and Cramer says you can open a new position in SLV or PAAS if you don't have any, but if you do, you shouldn't.  Not sure I see that logic, but I'd like to make a contrarian pick and short silver.  

That worthless video here

I understand the bullish sentiment for precious metals.  Read this story about predictions for gold and silver for 2011 and took away some good (bullish) points:

  • India and China have increased their money supplies so dramatically in the last 5 years that the inflationary repercussions will be profound. India’s money supply has increased 160% in 5 years, China’s 180%.
  • Silver and gold buying has been exceptionally strong in these countries in the last 5 years and as inflation rates in these countries increase over the near and medium term precious metal buying should accelerate.

I found this point interesting as well:

Because silver is the poor man’s gold. It will outperform gold in 2011 and for years to come since 90% of the world’s populations are poor.

So people will want gold but because they're poor, they'll buy silver as a second choice.  Okay I guess.  But with such a run-up lately, it's got to be  decent short.  Right?

Confidence 4 as I really know zippy about commodities.

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What People Are Saying...
David Sachdev said at 4/26/11 11:38 AM
I'll have to read this links. I've been on the loosing side of the gold trade for about 9 months or so thinking it was toppy, and I'm starting to change my mind and was considering going long silver.

I'll hopefully get the time to read these links by tonight and see if that keeps me in the short camp.
Josh Warner-Burke said at 5/2/11 9:18 AM
Overheard on @SellPuts: are you $SI_F bugs gonna BTFD ? or puke all over the dip and take a mortgage out to cover your margin call ? ask cramer
Josh Warner-Burke said at 5/3/11 9:21 AM
This continues to look timely as silver futures fall 6% this morning on news CME has raised margin requirements for the third time in a week.
David Sachdev said at 5/6/11 11:03 AM
This has been a great coverage, and the timing is amazing!

I dipped my toe into SLV long yesterday close to close as chatter of everyone closing their short positions and PUTS was happening. Haven't determined how long of a trade this will be yet.
SLV $15.07 0.18 (+1.2%)
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Opened 35.08 6/20/11
Target 39.00 by 7/8/11
Today 15.07
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