UA Under Armour: Football season is Under Armour season

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	Josh Warner-Burke
	Baltimore User since Nov 2007	52
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Football season is Under Armour season

My last coverage of UA closed at an inopportune time, and I managed to get screwed out of 4 dollars of upside, at least in terms of ProofTrader. But you know what? I actually like this stock a lot more now -- around 40 -- than I did at 36. That last coverage closed with the worst possible timing, so this time I have set my timeframe for the end of 2010 and just selected an ambitious target, 50 bucks.

Ambitious? Yes. Impossible? No. Like the company, I am bold. And Under Armour is one of the stocks that got me into liking stocks. It made a meteoric rise to $65 in July 2007. It went all the way down to 12.33 in the March 2009 bottom. Obviously it's recovered quite a bit, and I think the 40s are the new 30s for UA.

It's also football season, which doesn't hurt. Football is their key demographic. And back to school plus holiday, UA's best quarter is 4Q of course.

Just as a lot of NFL rookies are looking to make their breakout moment, UA is on the verge of their breakout moment. And I want to be holding their stock when they do. Confidence 10.

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What People Are Saying...

Josh Warner-Burke said at 9/13/10 9:59 AM Price action was $40.51 0.62 (+1.6%)

Incidentally I wrote this article on Sunday night with the price at 39.89.

Mike Barkett said at 9/13/10 10:10 AM Price action was $40.85 0.96 (+2.4%)

animals want to learn to talk so they can hang out with me!

Josh Warner-Burke said at 9/14/10 11:15 AM Price action was $41.76 0.85 (+2.1%)

UA presenting at Goldman retail conference today at 3pm http://www.marketwatch.com/story/under-armour-inc-to-present-at-goldman-sac...

Josh Warner-Burke said at 9/15/10 2:00 PM Price action was $43.15 0.94 (+2.2%)

Forbes article from today points out bullish options action: "Bulls hoping Under Armour?s shares increase dramatically by expiration next month purchased approximately 1,400 calls at the October $50 strike for an average premium of $0.34 each."

Josh Warner-Burke said at 9/16/10 12:56 PM Price action was $43.45 0.89 (+2.1%)

Dallas star WR Miles Austin just inked a multi-year deal with UA. http://nysportsjournalism.squarespace.com/nfls-austin-inks-new-deal-916/?SS...

Mike Barkett said at 9/16/10 5:12 PM Price action was $44.07 1.51 (+3.5%)

wow I'm up 32% on UA, erasing all losses from August options blunders. Now the question is when to sell. I feel like there's a chance at a dip back down to 36-38 before it really takes off...

Josh Warner-Burke said at 9/16/10 9:00 PM Price action was $44.07 1.51 (+3.5%)

If the market were to swoon sure, it could go down to that level. If the market is neutral to good, it keeps going up without touching below say 40.50.

David Sachdev said at 9/17/10 11:59 AM Price action was $43.88 -0.19 (-0.4%)

I'm thinking about jumping in here, but thinking today is a day for figuring out good stops, and see how quad witching day goes....

There were some real attempts to give this market to the bears this morning.

Mike Barkett said at 9/17/10 12:54 PM Price action was $43.96 -0.11 (-0.2%)

yeah it's just such a huge, quick run-up, I feel like there's got to be some profit-taking at some point unless something else props it up.

Josh Warner-Burke said at 9/17/10 5:54 PM Price action was $44.17 0.10 (+0.2%)

I have $39 October, $45 October calls, the former bought on Monday morning after writing this, the latter bought today with UA at 43.80 about.

David Sachdev said at 9/17/10 11:52 PM Price action was $44.17 0.10 (+0.2%)

Friday's Option Action (which can be downloaded on iTunes for free) talks about UA options.

Josh Warner-Burke said at 9/20/10 4:08 PM Price action was $45.25 1.08 (+2.4%)

@Mike to your point about 'its been such a huge run-up' look at what happened between netflix at 80 and 110... as awareness of a stock / perception of its long term prospects changes, it changes fast.

David Sachdev said at 9/20/10 4:22 PM Price action was $45.23 1.06 (+2.4%)

took a small bit here myself. On the NFLX, there is the 80 to 120 phenomenon that also helps that run up.

Josh Warner-Burke said at 10/5/10 9:42 AM Price action was $44.84 0.00 (0.0%)

Some interesting press about UA' s basketball moves:
http://www.slamonline.com/online/other-ballers/2010/10/under-armour-combine...

Josh Warner-Burke said at 10/5/10 4:29 PM Price action was $45.11 0.27 (+0.6%)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-05/under-armour-targets-nike-in-u-s-b...
?Our vision is to be the No. 2 market player [in basketball footwear] in the next several years,? Plank, a former University of Maryland football player, said in an interview in London today.

Josh Warner-Burke said at 10/7/10 10:39 AM Price action was $44.85 0.40 (+0.9%)

Tom Brady was seen wearing UA shoes in Monday night's dismantling of the Dolphins. No deal has been announced but UA and the star QB are in talks.

Josh Warner-Burke said at 10/7/10 10:39 AM Price action was $44.85 0.40 (+0.9%)

Link to the discussion about Brady's possible deal http://www.cnbc.com/id/39536454?__source=yahoo|headline|quote|text|&par=yah...

Mike Barkett said at 10/7/10 10:42 AM Price action was $45.25 0.80 (+1.8%)

you should bit.ly that link! :)

Buster Posey also wears a big UA chest guard that is plainly visible for 50% of all Giants playoff games. That they made the playoffs should have been a boost for UA, and so should it be if/when they beat the Braves.

Josh Warner-Burke said at 10/26/10 11:39 AM Price action was $46.95 -0.96 (-2.0%)

Reuters write-up of the latest earnings release. http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE69P30D20101026

Corey Herbert said at 11/8/10 10:43 AM Price action was $50.94 0.68 (+1.4%)

Good coverage, Josh. Currently up 10% on this pick!

Josh Warner-Burke said at 11/8/10 11:36 AM Price action was $50.82 0.56 (+1.1%)

UA has signed Tom Brady.

http://www.nesn.com/2010/11/tom-brady-spurns-nike-signs-with-rival-under-ar...

"Under Armour's everything I was looking for,'' Brady said. "It's cool. It's fun. It's what so many of the kids are wearing, and I like to try to stay cutting-edge. I like the company. I think we've got a lot in common. We both want to stay hungry, stay humble.

Josh Warner-Burke said at 12/2/10 3:22 PM Price action was $57.85 -0.06 (-0.1%)

I find this interesting, UA makes women's underwear now. I always thought as much as they would move into women's stuff (including sports bras) they would never do women's bottoms. Not that I see a problem with it now, it just surprised me a little.

http://www.underarmour.com/shop/us/en/ua-underwear?pg=1&sort=BS&ne=114&n=12...

Josh Warner-Burke said at 12/10/10 3:43 PM Price action was $59.95 0.94 (+1.6%)

UA just touched 60.00 - break out the party hats!

Josh Warner-Burke said at 12/22/10 1:11 PM Price action was $54.83 -2.57 (-4.5%)

A very weird day when the indexes are up and UA is down 5% on no news.

Josh Warner-Burke said at 12/28/10 4:35 PM Price action was $53.47 -1.03 (-1.9%)

On a Thursday night early in December, Pinchas Zerbib took off his traditional cotton skullcap. In its place, he put on a polyester one.

"It's my Under Armour yarmulke," Zerbib said. "For practice, it's better. Plus, it's still kosher."

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/28/sports/28israelfootball.html

Josh Warner-Burke said at 6/2/11 1:09 PM Price action was $65.96 -0.67 (-1.0%)

"After offseason neck surgery leaves him scarred and unable to practice, Peyton Manning teams with Under Armour and the estate of Charles Nelson Reilly to develop a fashionable line of moisture-wicking neckerchiefs. Manning introduces the product at VH1's Fashion Week in September, and sales skyrocket thereafter, with Under Armour neckerchiefs becoming a worldwide phenomenon, sported by influential people ranging from Snoop Dogg to Perez Hilton to Sarah Palin to Muammar Gaddafi."

- http://www.sports-central.org/sports/2011/05/27/secrets_of_the_2011_nfl_sea...